Early Bird – Ascot Day 2

Not the day we wanted on Tuesday. Waking up to news of overnight thunderstorms and 10mm of rain certainly didn’t help our cause. It meant it was very hard for horses to make up ground from the back on the straight course, you really had to be prominent throughout to play a part. This meant we got an each way place at 14/1 from Equilateral and a non runner after Lethal Lunch was pulled early on in the day.

Tips

1:15 Ascot – Sir Busker – 1pt e/w @ 9/1 Paddy Power 1/5th odds 6 places

2:25 Ascot – Bright Melody – 1.5pt e/w MAX @ 6/1 Skybet, Ladbrokes & Coral 1/5th odds 5 places

3:35 Ascot – Alrajaa – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 Betway 1/5th odds 6 places

3:35 Ascot – Willie John – 0.75pt e/w @ 20/1 Betfair 1/5th odds 6 places

Analysis

1:15 Ascot – Sir Busker – 1pt e/w @ 9/1 Paddy Power 1/5th odds 6 places

Might not be ideal if getting too far behind but I couldn’t help but be impressed by the win of Sir Busker at Newcastle the other day. Took a bit of stoking up but when got going then picked up nicely to win pretty cosily I thought. Gone up 4lb for the head win but I thought there was plenty more left in the tank. Has turf form at 7 furlongs from last year but had no problem staying a mile when last seen. Handles a bit of give in the ground whilst the booking of Oisin Murphy is a very promising sign. As said, if it can stay in contention from its high draw then it looks to have a very good chance.

2:25 Ascot – Bright Melody – 1.5pt e/w MAX @ 6/1 Skybet, Ladbrokes & Coral 1/5th odds 5 places

Going with a max bet on Bright Melody, a twice raced 3yo who caught the eye when green around the Kempton turn before staying on to good effect in a classic trail over 1m 2f. That form took a boost when the runner up won the King Edward VII group 2 today, whilst the form could receive a further boost if the winner can defy a penalty in the Group 3 Hampton Court run just before. Yet to race on turf, he is from top connections who are adding cheekpieces to help it concentrate which look a good move. Even the 6th then went and followed up with third in a fillies listed race giving another boost to the form. To me Bright Melody looks a very well handicapped horse, especially if Berlin Tango confirms the form half an hour before.

3:35 Ascot – Alrajaa – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 Betway 1/5th odds 6 places

3:35 Ascot – Willie John – 0.75pt e/w @ 20/1 Betfair 1/5th odds 6 places

Taking two against the field, one drawn towards the middle and one drawn low. Middle is Alrajaa for John Gosden. Should have taken the hint today that the horses of Hamdans to be on are the ones ridden by Crowley. He got it right three times and so hopefully can get it right in this as well from a choice of three. Winner of its last four last year, three of which were on the a/w. It just snuck into the handicap here with a mark of 109 having won last time impressively by three lengths off 100. Back in the day connections wouldn’t have considered running it in a handicap off this high and would certainly have gone down the pattern route now. However, lured I suspect by the good prize money if they can get it into the handicap then that is what they now seem to do.Can make it pay as well, considering Crowley could have ridden the race fit and recent winner Montatham, instead he goes for the horse not seen for 214 days.

The other is a bit of a pot shot in Willie John. Always thought it would make up into a decent horse but has rather disappointed so far. It’s second to Elarqam over 1m 2f last year though reads very well considering that is rated 120 now and Willie John is just 104. Soft ground in a very strong Wolferton was against it and could be excused though its next run at Doncaster was equally disappointing. Plenty of time off, connections have stuck by it and got Atzeni for the ride as well. On good ground if it can find the ability it is clearly capable of then a strongly run mile may be right up its street.